Global, regional, and national disease burden estimates of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children in 2015: a systematic review and modelling study
Ting Shi
(1)
,
David Mcallister
(2)
,
Katherine O'Brien
(3)
,
Eric Simoes
(4)
,
Shabir Madhi
(5)
,
Bradford Gessner
(6)
,
Fernando Polack
,
Evelyn Balsells
,
Sozinho Acacio
,
Claudia Aguayo
,
Issifou Alassani
(7)
,
Asad Ali
(8)
,
Martin Antonio
(9)
,
Shally Awasthi
(10)
,
Juliet Awori
(11)
,
Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner
(12)
,
Henry Baggett
(13)
,
Vicky Baillie
(5)
,
Angel Balmaseda
(14)
,
Alfredo Barahona
,
Sudha Basnet
(15)
,
Quique Bassat
(16)
,
Wilma Basualdo
,
Godfrey Bigogo
(11)
,
Louis Bont
(17)
,
Robert Breiman
(18)
,
W Abdullah Brooks
(3)
,
Shobha Broor
(19)
,
Nigel Bruce
(20)
,
Dana Bruden
,
Philippe Buchy
(4)
,
Stuart Campbell
,
Phyllis Carosone-Link
(4)
,
Mandeep Chadha
,
James Chipeta
,
Monidarin Chou
(21)
,
Wilfrido Clara
(22)
,
Cheryl Cohen
(5)
,
Elizabeth de Cuellar
,
Duc-Anh Dang
(23)
,
Budragchaagiin Dash-Yandag
,
Maria Deloria-Knoll
,
Mukesh Dherani
(20)
,
Tekchheng Eap
(24)
,
Bernard Ebruke
(9)
,
Marcela Echavarria
,
Carla Cecília de Freitas Lázaro Emediato
,
Rodrigo A Fasce
(25)
,
Daniel Feikin
(22)
,
Luzhao Feng
(22)
,
Angel Gentile
(26)
,
Aubree Gordon
(27)
,
Doli Goswami
(12)
,
Sophie Goyet
(4)
,
Michelle Groome
,
Natasha Halasa
(28)
,
Siddhivinayak Hirve
(29)
,
Nusrat Homaira
(12)
,
Stephen R C Howie
(30)
,
Jorge Jara
(31)
,
Imane Jroundi
(16)
,
Cissy Kartasasmita
,
Najwa Khuri-Bulos
(32)
,
Karen Kotloff
,
Anand Krishnan
(19)
,
Romina Libster
,
Olga Lopez
,
Marilla Lucero
(33)
,
Florencia Lucion
(26)
,
Socorro Lupisan
(33)
,
Debora Marcone
,
John Mccracken
(31)
,
Mario Mejia
,
Jennifer Moisi
(6)
,
Joel Montgomery
(22)
,
David Moore
,
Cinta Moraleda
(16)
,
Jocelyn Moyes
(5)
,
Patrick Munywoki
(11)
,
Kuswandewi Mutyara
,
Mark Nicol
(34)
,
James Nokes
(11)
,
Pagbajabyn Nymadawa
,
Maria da Costa Oliveira
,
Histoshi Oshitani
(35)
,
Nitin Pandey
(10)
,
Gláucia Paranhos-Baccalà
(36)
,
Lia Phillips
(37)
,
Valentina Sanchez Picot
,
Mustafizur Rahman
(12)
,
Mala Rakoto-Andrianarivelo
(38)
,
Zeba Rasmussen
(39)
,
Barbara Rath
,
Annick Robinson
,
Candice Romero
,
Graciela Russomando
(40)
,
Vahid Salimi
(41)
,
Pongpun Sawatwong
(13)
,
Nienke Scheltema
(17)
,
Brunhilde Schweiger
(42)
,
J Anthony G Scott
,
Phil Seidenberg
(43)
,
Kunling Shen
,
Rosalyn Singleton
(22)
,
Viviana Sotomayor
,
Tor Strand
,
Agustinus Sutanto
,
Maria Sylla
,
Milagritos Tapia
,
Somsak Thamthitiwat
(13)
,
Elizabeth Thomas
(39)
,
Rafal Tokarz
(44)
,
Claudia Turner
,
Marietjie Venter
(45)
,
Sunthareeya Waicharoen
(13)
,
Jianwei Wang
(46)
,
Wanitda Watthanaworawit
,
Lay-Myint Yoshida
(47)
,
Hongjie Yu
(22)
,
Heather Zar
(34)
,
Harry Campbell
(1)
,
Harish Nair
(1)
1
Edin. -
University of Edinburgh
2 University of Glasgow
3 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health [Baltimore]
4 University of Colorado Anschutz [Aurora]
5 WITS - University of the Witwatersrand [Johannesburg]
6 Agence de Médecine Préventive
7 Ministry of Health [Togo]
8 Aga Khan University
9 MRC - Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia
10 King George's Medical University
11 KEMRI - Kenya Medical Research Institute
12 ICDDR,B - International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh
13 Ministry of Public Health [Thailand]
14 MINSA - Ministry of Health [Nicaragua]
15 Centre for International Health [Bergen, Norway]
16 UB - Universitat de Barcelona
17 University Medical Center [Utrecht]
18 EGHI - Emory Global Health Institute [Atlanta]
19 All India Institute of Medical Sciences
20 University of Liverpool
21 UHS - University of Health Sciences [Phnom-Penh, Cambodia]
22 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
23 NIHE - National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology [Hanoi, Vietnam]
24 National Pediatric Hospital
25 Public Health Institute of Chile
26 Austral University
27 University of Michigan [Ann Arbor]
28 Vanderbilt University [Nashville]
29 KEM Hospital Research Center
30 University of Auckland [Auckland]
31 Universidad del Valle de Guatemala
32 JU - The University of Jordan
33 Research Institute for Tropical Medicine
34 University of Cape Town
35 Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine
36 LPE-Fondation Mérieux - Laboratoire des pathogènes émergents -- Emerging Pathogens Laboratory
37 Rollins School of Public Health
38 Centre d’Infectiologie Charles-Mérieux, Université d’Antananarivo - Madagascar
39 NCI-NIH - National Cancer Institute [Bethesda]
40 UNA - Universidad Nacional de Asunción [Paraguay] = National University of Asunción = Université nationale d'Asunción
41 TUMS - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
42 RKI - Robert Koch Institute [Berlin]
43 The University of New Mexico [Albuquerque]
44 Columbia Mailman School of Public Health
45 University of Pretoria [South Africa]
46 China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences
47 Nagasaki University
2 University of Glasgow
3 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health [Baltimore]
4 University of Colorado Anschutz [Aurora]
5 WITS - University of the Witwatersrand [Johannesburg]
6 Agence de Médecine Préventive
7 Ministry of Health [Togo]
8 Aga Khan University
9 MRC - Medical Research Council Unit The Gambia
10 King George's Medical University
11 KEMRI - Kenya Medical Research Institute
12 ICDDR,B - International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh
13 Ministry of Public Health [Thailand]
14 MINSA - Ministry of Health [Nicaragua]
15 Centre for International Health [Bergen, Norway]
16 UB - Universitat de Barcelona
17 University Medical Center [Utrecht]
18 EGHI - Emory Global Health Institute [Atlanta]
19 All India Institute of Medical Sciences
20 University of Liverpool
21 UHS - University of Health Sciences [Phnom-Penh, Cambodia]
22 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
23 NIHE - National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology [Hanoi, Vietnam]
24 National Pediatric Hospital
25 Public Health Institute of Chile
26 Austral University
27 University of Michigan [Ann Arbor]
28 Vanderbilt University [Nashville]
29 KEM Hospital Research Center
30 University of Auckland [Auckland]
31 Universidad del Valle de Guatemala
32 JU - The University of Jordan
33 Research Institute for Tropical Medicine
34 University of Cape Town
35 Tohoku University Graduate School of Medicine
36 LPE-Fondation Mérieux - Laboratoire des pathogènes émergents -- Emerging Pathogens Laboratory
37 Rollins School of Public Health
38 Centre d’Infectiologie Charles-Mérieux, Université d’Antananarivo - Madagascar
39 NCI-NIH - National Cancer Institute [Bethesda]
40 UNA - Universidad Nacional de Asunción [Paraguay] = National University of Asunción = Université nationale d'Asunción
41 TUMS - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
42 RKI - Robert Koch Institute [Berlin]
43 The University of New Mexico [Albuquerque]
44 Columbia Mailman School of Public Health
45 University of Pretoria [South Africa]
46 China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences
47 Nagasaki University
Fernando Polack
- Fonction : Auteur
Evelyn Balsells
- Fonction : Auteur
Sozinho Acacio
- Fonction : Auteur
Claudia Aguayo
- Fonction : Auteur
Alfredo Barahona
- Fonction : Auteur
Wilma Basualdo
- Fonction : Auteur
Dana Bruden
- Fonction : Auteur
Philippe Buchy
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 758512
- ORCID : 0000-0003-1372-3008
- IdRef : 130418579
Stuart Campbell
- Fonction : Auteur
Mandeep Chadha
- Fonction : Auteur
James Chipeta
- Fonction : Auteur
Elizabeth de Cuellar
- Fonction : Auteur
Budragchaagiin Dash-Yandag
- Fonction : Auteur
Maria Deloria-Knoll
- Fonction : Auteur
Marcela Echavarria
- Fonction : Auteur
Carla Cecília de Freitas Lázaro Emediato
- Fonction : Auteur
Sophie Goyet
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 765897
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1835-4478
- IdRef : 19579401X
Michelle Groome
- Fonction : Auteur
Jorge Jara
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 786717
- ORCID : 0000-0003-3176-0689
Cissy Kartasasmita
- Fonction : Auteur
Karen Kotloff
- Fonction : Auteur
Romina Libster
- Fonction : Auteur
Olga Lopez
- Fonction : Auteur
Debora Marcone
- Fonction : Auteur
Mario Mejia
- Fonction : Auteur
David Moore
- Fonction : Auteur
Kuswandewi Mutyara
- Fonction : Auteur
Pagbajabyn Nymadawa
- Fonction : Auteur
Maria da Costa Oliveira
- Fonction : Auteur
Valentina Sanchez Picot
- Fonction : Auteur
Barbara Rath
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 766812
- IdRef : 198085532
Annick Robinson
- Fonction : Auteur
Candice Romero
- Fonction : Auteur
J Anthony G Scott
- Fonction : Auteur
Kunling Shen
- Fonction : Auteur
Viviana Sotomayor
- Fonction : Auteur
Tor Strand
- Fonction : Auteur
Agustinus Sutanto
- Fonction : Auteur
Maria Sylla
- Fonction : Auteur
Milagritos Tapia
- Fonction : Auteur
Claudia Turner
- Fonction : Auteur
Wanitda Watthanaworawit
- Fonction : Auteur
Résumé
BACKGROUND:
We have previously estimated that respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was associated with 22% of all episodes of (severe) acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI) resulting in 55 000 to 199 000 deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2005. In the past 5 years, major research activity on RSV has yielded substantial new data from developing countries. With a considerably expanded dataset from a large international collaboration, we aimed to estimate the global incidence, hospital admission rate, and mortality from RSV-ALRI episodes in young children in 2015.
METHODS:
We estimated the incidence and hospital admission rate of RSV-associated ALRI (RSV-ALRI) in children younger than 5 years stratified by age and World Bank income regions from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Dec 31, 2016, and unpublished data from 76 high quality population-based studies. We estimated the RSV-ALRI incidence for 132 developing countries using a risk factor-based model and 2015 population estimates. We estimated the in-hospital RSV-ALRI mortality by combining in-hospital case fatality ratios with hospital admission estimates from hospital-based (published and unpublished) studies. We also estimated overall RSV-ALRI mortality by identifying studies reporting monthly data for ALRI mortality in the community and RSV activity.
FINDINGS:
We estimated that globally in 2015, 33·1 million (uncertainty range [UR] 21·6-50·3) episodes of RSV-ALRI, resulted in about 3·2 million (2·7-3·8) hospital admissions, and 59 600 (48 000-74 500) in-hospital deaths in children younger than 5 years. In children younger than 6 months, 1·4 million (UR 1·2-1·7) hospital admissions, and 27 300 (UR 20 700-36 200) in-hospital deaths were due to RSV-ALRI. We also estimated that the overall RSV-ALRI mortality could be as high as 118 200 (UR 94 600-149 400). Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any given population.
INTERPRETATION:
Globally, RSV is a common cause of childhood ALRI and a major cause of hospital admissions in young children, resulting in a substantial burden on health-care services. About 45% of hospital admissions and in-hospital deaths due to RSV-ALRI occur in children younger than 6 months. An effective maternal RSV vaccine or monoclonal antibody could have a substantial effect on disease burden in this age group.
FUNDING:
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.